How It Works

Strategy Blueprint: This bot operates on prediction market contract prices, not traditional stock/crypto data. Backtest results are simulated to illustrate the strategy logic. Real performance depends on execution speed, market liquidity, and platform fees. No guarantees of profit.

Same binary arb strategy adapted for Kalshi — a CFTC-regulated prediction market. Kalshi vs Polymarket: - Kalshi is US-regulated (CFTC), Polymarket is crypto-native - Kalshi charges ~7% fee on PROFITS only (not on total payout) - Kalshi has broader event categories: weather, economics, Fed decisions, sports - Lower liquidity per market, but more total markets - USD-denominated (not USDC) The fee math matters: Since Kalshi only charges on profits, the breakeven threshold is different. Combined < $0.97 with a 7% profit fee gives ~1.5% net spread. Tighter than Polymarket but still profitable at scale. Best Kalshi categories for arb: Sports (binary outcomes), weather (will temperature exceed X?), politics (will candidate win?), economics (will Fed raise rates?). Any binary YES/NO market where both sides are independently priced.

Configuration

maxCombinedPrice0.97

minSpreadPct1.5

maxPositionSize5000

positionPct60

Symbols: kalshi-events

Source Code

#!/usr/bin/env node
// Kalshi Event Arb — JC Trading Bots
// https://trading.jc.holdings/bot/kalshi-event-arb-dwfg
// License: MIT | Free forever | Modify however you want
//
// DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee
// future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.
// Use at your own risk. No guarantees of profit.
//
// Usage:
//   node kalshi-event-arb-dwfg.js                    # Print signals
//   ALPACA_KEY=x ALPACA_SECRET=y node kalshi-event-arb-dwfg.js  # Paper trade
//   ALPACA_KEY=x ALPACA_SECRET=y LIVE=1 node kalshi-event-arb-dwfg.js  # REAL money

// ─── Configuration ─────────────────────────────────────────
const CONFIG = {
  "maxCombinedPrice": 0.97,
  "minSpreadPct": 1.5,
  "maxPositionSize": 5000,
  "positionPct": 60
};
const SYMBOLS = ["kalshi-events"];

const BOT_NAME = "Kalshi Event Arbitrage";
const DATA_RANGE = "3mo";

// Binary arb on Kalshi event contracts: weather, politics, economics.
// Profit is guaranteed in theory: buy YES+NO (or both sides) when combined < $1.
// Kalshi charges fees only on profits, making tight arbs viable.

function evaluate(candles, config) {
  const threshold = config.maxCombinedCost || 0.97;
  console.log("\n  Strategy: Scan Kalshi binary event contracts");
  console.log("  Looking for: YES + NO < $" + threshold.toFixed(2) + " on same event");
  console.log("  Kalshi advantage: fees only on profit, not on cost basis");
  console.log("  Profit is guaranteed in theory — the event happens or it doesn't.\n");
  console.log("  Kalshi API: https://trading-api.readme.io/reference\n");
  return { action: "hold", reason: "Blueprint — implement Kalshi API for live scanning" };
}

// ─── Main ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
async function run() {
  console.log("\n" + "=".repeat(60));
  console.log("  " + BOT_NAME);
  console.log("  " + new Date().toISOString());
  console.log("=".repeat(60) + "\n");
  evaluate([], CONFIG);
}

run().catch(err => { console.error(err); process.exit(1); });

Download .js File

Full source code. MIT License. Free forever. Modify and deploy however you want.